87 years after the devastation of the Great Kantō earthquake, Tokyo authorities are, as always, braced for another major quake in the not so distant future.

The capital of Japan is located beside three major fault lines and is expected to be impacted by another major earthquake within the next 50 years.

What would be the immediate effects of such a quake? How will the country cope?

Last year, Tokyo Magnitude 8 took an anime inspired look at how things might play out…

Hoping to shed some light on the issue, I interviewed David Edgington: an associate professor at the University of British Columbia who has examined and done much research on the rebuilding of Kobe after the 1995 Hanshin Earthquake.

1. The Greater Tokyo Area is home to more than 13 million people. Based on your experiences, research and factoring the scale of the metropolis into account: is Tokyo ready to deal with a major earthquake? If not, why?

A. No city government can be totally prepared for an earthquake on the scale of the Hanshin Earthquake. There are just too many old buildings and factories with hazardous chemicals, narrow streets, overhead advertisement signs, overhead electric lines etc etc in Tokyo (and other Japanese industrial cities) that would cause severe damage at the time a severe quake – see Peter Hadfield (1991) “Sixty Seconds That Will Change the World: The Coming Tokyo Earthquake“, Boston, Charles E. Tuttle Company. But that being said, the national and local governments have taken steps to install sophisticated communication control centres since 1995, and other facilities, which should facilitate a quick response by trained emergency crews in such as crisis.

2. Though one hopes to limit both economic damage and human casualties, what type of figures are we looking at in both cases?

A. Back in 2004, I remember the national government releasing a report that stated a major earthquake in Tokyo could cause up to 13,000 deaths. There are of course various scenarios as to the damage caused, but the maximum damage would occur if a quake of 6.9 magnitude hit near Shinjuku, on the western side of central Tokyo. The same report noted that was a 70 percent chance of a major quake hitting Tokyo within the next 30 years.

3. Japan is the world’s third largest economy. Generally speaking, what short term effects would a mega-quake have on the Japanese and global economy? Medium term? Long term?

A. This is very difficult to predict. Peter Hadfield argues in his book that the world’s financial system would be affected due to the amount of Japanese funds that normally go out of Japan to help finance the USA and other countries. In the case of a very bad natural disaster in Tokyo, these funds would have to be diverted to assist local recovery and reconstruction.

4. You have done extensive research on the Hanshin Quake and the reconstruction that followed. Based on this research and the lessons learned from such, what do you think businesses and government can do to minimize the impact of such a quake?

A. The long-term upgrading of infrastructure and widening of streets and creating local open spaces would help – so would decentralising government functions away from Tokyo to a new capital. This was debated in the 1990s, but there is very little political support for such a project now – mainly due to the vast expense a new capital would cost the country. In addition, a government sponsored earthquake insurance scheme would be useful.

So what do you think?  Would Tokyo survive a quake and are  you prepared?  Thoughts welcome below.

—-

Professor David Edgington is an associate professor at the University of British Columbia, whose current research focuses on aspects of economic geography in the Pacific Rim, including Japanese trade and investment patterns in East Asia, urban and regional change in Japan, Japanese tourism in Canada, and multicultural planning in cities of Pacific Rim countries.